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SV Elversberg vs Freiburg

Fri 20 Nov 2026, 00:00 UTC · Round 10 · Data confidence: Low (promoted/new team)

Match Result (1X2)

SV Elversberg win: 45.1%

Draw: 23.4%

Freiburg win: 31.5%

Predicted: SV Elversberg

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 52.1%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 48.6%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.07

More corners: Freiburg (42.6% home / 57.4% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Freiburg

Yes

Probability Freiburg wins or draws: 62.0%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result SV Elversberg Clearest lean of the available outcomes (45% vs next-best 32%). (45.0% model probability) Medium

Favorite Avoids Defeat Freiburg win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (62.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.